So. Iowa and New Hampshire done (and Wyoming too, if you’re a die-hard Republican), the primary season is really in flow now, and with the prospect of one or two a week for the rest of the month, this will be dominating many politically attuned minds. Like virtually everyone else, I fancy a go at proving myself to be inept at spotting trends, and here is my take on what next in the primaries.
Democrats:
The race hinges on who gets seen through first. Clinton has a better ability, but Obama a better rapport with the people. Obama has no policies, but Clinton has seemed cold. All being equal, the clear answer is Edwards, possibly the man with the best future of all the candidates if he doesn’t win, but he doesn’t have the media vote or a peg like the other two.
Next Crucial Primary: South Carolina – if Edwards does well here and nicks it, that could turn the race on its head.
Potential Kingmaker: Edwards, if he fails in South Carolina. If not, the candidate Kucinich backs after Super Tuesday will be the front runner.
Ultimate Nomination: Tough call. Would prefer Edwards to either main candidate, and Kucinich above all. I’m guessing Obama based on a personality led campaign and the empty rhetoric of uniting the House – progressive my arse.
Republicans:
This is right open and split in many ways. Romney leading, and looking good so far but quiet about it. Huckabee seems a stronger bet right now though. McCain is the man of the moment, and has a very different approach to the others. Giuliani seems to be mis-firing, but nothing he has targetted yet has cropped up, and should do much better in Michgan and Florida. The others really seem also-rans at this stage, but why does Ron Paul keep getting the press?
Next Crucial Primary: Florida – For all the talk of Michigan, Florida is the one to win. The site of the last great Republican theft victory in 2000, it is going to be major with the delegations halved before Super Tuesday. Fiftyseven winner-take-all votes – gotta be the major one
Potential Kingmaker: As they fall away in the weeks after super Tuesday, you can be sure that there will be recriminations, so perhaps it may not be so much the kingmaker as the kingkiller. If Giuliani is out of it, I can see his support as a millstone, though he may yet end up as the vice candidate, appropriately enough.
Ultimate Nomination: It has to be John McCain – the most candid man in the GOP, and therefore the most likely Republican to win.
Tags: clinton, democrat, edwards, florida, Giuliani, Huckabee, kucinich, McCain, nominations, obama, primaries, Republican, Romney, south carolina, US Elections
